This is the third lesson of the macro topic, “The challenges of the European Union,” in the first module of EUPress Teacher Training.
The objective of this lesson, led by Pietro Sala, is to discuss th EU challenge of neighborhood stabilization.
Once insulated from global turmoil, Europe now finds itself surrounded by an increasingly unstable neighborhood — from Russia’s aggression in the east, to failed states in North Africa, to multi-layered conflicts in the Middle East. Combined with the United States’ gradual strategic shift toward the Pacific and China, the result is a geopolitical vacuum that the European Union is struggling to fill.
From “never more secure” to “existence questioned”
In 2003, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs declared Europe to be “more prosperous, secure, and free” than ever before. But just 13 years later, a tone of alarm had set in: “The purpose, even existence, of our union is being questioned,” said Federica Mogherini in 2016. Today, the trends are even clearer: Europe’s postwar stability has been structurally undermined.
A world shifted: From Eurocentric to Pacific-centered geopolitics
The industrial rise of China, India, and Brazil has redistributed global power. The world no longer revolves around transatlantic affairs; instead, the Pacific has become the new strategic center.
The United States — Europe’s long-standing security guarantor — has pivoted accordingly. First under Obama, then even more decisively under Trump, Washington shifted its strategic focus toward Asia. The implications for Europe are profound: a strategic vacuum now surrounds the continent, exposing it to security risks it is unprepared to manage.
The European Neighborhood Policy (ENP): Aid as a security tool
Lacking robust military power, the EU has leaned heavily on diplomacy and aid — primarily through the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP).
This framework supports:
- Mediterranean countries (e.g. Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria)
- Eastern Partnership nations (e.g. Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova)
Although billions in EU funds are dedicated to economic development and political cooperation, the ENP has been challenged by dramatic geopolitical shifts beyond Europe’s control.
Eastern front: Russia’s resurgence and Europe’s limits
Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine defied the post-Cold War order and exposed the EU’s military vulnerability. Lacking an integrated army, the Union has relied on sanctions — its strongest instrument — which remain controversial among some member states.
Southern front: North African collapse and migration spillovers
The Arab Spring, powered in part by declining American dominance in the region, led to:
- the fall of long-standing regimes,
- a fragile democracy in Tunisia,
- authoritarian resurgence in Egypt,
- and a failed state in Libya.
The result: mass displacement, human trafficking networks, and migration flows that continue to stoke political tensions within EU borders.
Despite the urgency, a large-scale EU “Marshall Plan for Africa” — including military stabilization — has not materialized.
Middle East: A web of overlapping conflicts
The Middle East remains an arc of chronic instability, shaped by:
- The Israeli–Palestinian conflict
- The Saudi–Iran–Turkey rivalry
- Sectarian tensions between Sunnis and Shiites
- Kurdish autonomy claims
- The aftershocks of US policy shifts, such as the Iran nuclear deal’s collapse
The EU lacks the unified voice and diplomatic firepower to significantly shape outcomes in this region.
Europe’s foreign policy paradox
A continental power with global economic reach, the EU still lacks the foreign policy and defense instruments expected of a geopolitical actor. Decisions on foreign policy require unanimity among 27 member states — a constraint that paralyzes action.
Some modest progress has been made:
- European Defence Agency (2004)
- European External Action Service (2010)
- 130 EU diplomatic delegations globally
Yet ambitions for a true European army or single foreign policy remain stalled under the weight of national vetoes and divergent strategic cultures.
As the lesson concludes, Europe stands at a crossroads: either it equips itself with the capacity to act — including in defense and diplomacy — or it risks becoming an object, rather than an actor, in the new global order.
